GT you live in a very unusual area as far as real estate values are concerned. $4000 a month rents a mansion most anywhere else in the country. And home values gaining 40% since 2009 is pretty unusual too but is likely that many folks in homes found the values going down 30% or more pretty rapidly.
I agree with you completely, here it will get you a 1,400 square foot 1970's tract home, which should drive my point home even further.... If I stood to gain $300,000, I could also easily lose the same $300,000. Almost did, but needed a home and stuck with it.
More in a minute.
Owning a house is not always a good investment, but if you find something you feel like might be a "forever home" than that is a lot of intangibles that are hard to put a price on.
You can't put a price on it because I would likely never sell it. My kids probably will though LOL....
What I was suggesting to Squirrel Master is that because he seems hot to buy sooner rather than later is that when the economic bubble bursts this next time, and it will, the loan he took out for $400K he will continue to be on the hook for while the house is only worth $280K and there will be many in the area for sale.
What difference would it make if he planned to stay there? This is where it gets tricky... If he had a solid 5 year plan, and could muster the credit to get a prime loan of $300000 at 3% at a 15 year fixed with 20% down, your staring $2,000/mo. in the face, the good news would be when you reach that at that 5 year point, pretty much no matter what home prices do, he could still cash out and be OK, if the same home was rented, say for $1500/mo. he would have to be diligent in putting into savings the extra $500 into an account and buying and IRA every 6 months... Still, the 5 years would only net you about $30,000, if in an IRA, about $40k, see the difference? at 1/3 of the loan period you would net less than half, not to mention the tax benefit of home ownership... Not sure how Nevada works on that in all honesty. California, it's extreme.
If he has his cash in the bank, he can comfortably buy way more house than previously expected, which will pay off down the road. The same goes for investing. Smart folks are keeping their cash out of the market, waiting to jump in when stocks get cheap. The window won't be open for long, but it will allow smart folks to minimize their losses. At least that is my plan.
Not a solid plan really, if the market does "tank" as you say, you would have to be a future telling genius on what to buy. Stocks wont split, they get devalued, by being devalued, there is a chance a bigger fish than you buys enough of the cheap stock to purchase and dismantle the company. If this happens, you lose everything. This is what happened to everyone's 401 the last go around. The only reason some survived was from the banks that were selling bad mortgages, the banks falsified almost everything. The bail out made it less obvious by dumbing down the losses.... Still, it was horrific.
That being said, money is cheap right now, I doubt seriously that interest rates will stay as low as they are today... So if you were able to get a loan for say $300000 at 2.7%-3.5% for 15 years, the payment would be manageable. If you buy more house than you should because of the false low, there is a chance you could come out on top, but you better have a rope on the planets that need to align and be ready to pounce when the time comes...
This next bubble popping will be different. The government will not be able to print another 9 Billion dollars of stimulus like they did this time. We will be burdened by Obamacare in full effect, we have half of the country on public assistance already and jobs continue to leave. Stock prices are way over inflated now, they have a long way to fall. And that is why I am using other people's money (rent) to pay for my new house. I waited nearly 20 years to buy a second home. Refinanced a few times along the way to get better rates while never taking out cash, and always paid biweekly so my 30 loan was done in 18.
Bottom line is that I was looking for a way to invest outside of the stock market. I lost 35% in the Obama recession and I don't have time to make that up again. At least with other people paying the loans on assets I own, just seems to make more sense at least in the short term while we see how the world is going to fix itself. And congrats on the house GT, she's a beaut.
Not a reality yet, working on it.... But thank you very much, the hard work is finally starting to pay off..
Well, I blame Bush-a-nomics for the recession, but I digress....
If you are looking for the world to fix itself, you better find the fountain of youth.... I'm nearly 50 years old, I don't plan on working much after 60, if at all. To do that, I need my home to be paid off, or at least very very close... My dad followed a similar plan that you speak of, but he's 73, the vacation home ended up costing him more than it made him. Taxes were part of it, but not having his home paid down was a final bullet.... Had he been renting, he would really be in a world of shit...The stock market all but erased his retirement. I'm keeping things simple and more in my own control. I am by no means a genius when it comes to money, but by standing by my guns and hanging with a pretty shitty adjustable mortgage while putting a kid through college I was able to learn a lot, watching my friends move money around and get killed by interest rates and the markets, I learned what not to do..... For the most part anyway.
And Squirrel Master, If you go spend $4,000 on a hull and interior on a trailer, I'll drive to Vegas and punch you in the throat myself....LOL
There is no "correct" answer right now, if it was four months from now it would give you a little insight on what going to happen....
I am of the play it safe kind of thinking.... I don't think I have $4000 in any of my boats. The one with the most money in it is the 23' Crusader, and that's only because we put in a brand new 7.4l Mercruiser with a Bravo I, that alone was almost $8k.
Just my personal opinion, maybe if I knew more about Nevada taxes and real estate rentals and home prices I could give you some more solid advice...
Good luck with your decision bud...
GT